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One year with Covid-19: what have we learnt?

This is a recording from AI Lund lunch seminar 24 March 2021

Speakers: Bo Bernhardsson, Kristian Soltesz, and Richard Pates Dept. of Automatic Control, Lund University

Abstract

Just over a year has passed since the first confirmed Covid-19 case in Sweden. Throughout this year we have followed the epidemiological evolution through the lens of dynamical systems and control. In this talk we look back and try to summarize what we have learnt, focusing on four topics:

  1. We will talk about how early attempts to understand the effects of non-pharmaceitical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns, school closures and public events bans, have likely affected policymakers.
  2. Next, we consider the prospect of defeating the virus through testing, tracing and case isolation, being broadly recognized as a less invasive potential alternative to mandated societal lockdowns.
  3. With Sweden as our case, we then look at publicly available data and apply simple data-driven modelling techniques in an attempt to retrospectively estimate some key epidemiological parameters.
  4. Inspired by the above topics, we finally discuss how cost-effective changes in how data is collected could possibly contribute to less uncertain estimation (and prediction) in future infectious disease epidemics.